Last night we tallied the votes, ran the Knoxville and Kingsport strategies through the computer, and found out who would be doing what to whom and where and with what. You can watch the process here, or skip down to read all about it.
Before we get into it, I should point out one small editorial change that I made. I've changed the names of the armies. Instead of naming them after the town they start in - that led to a lot of confusion as you might have the Jonesville First Line in the Jonesville army marching on Jonesville - I've given each army a slightly altered name, but one that retains the original character. For example, The Army of Jonesvill is now Jones' Army. You'll see how much easier that is below the fold.
If you ask Mr. Wargaming, things could not have gone worse for Kingsport. Our weekly random event indicated bad omens for all of their forces. All three armies would travel at half speed for the next week. Combine that with the selection of Plan Safety Dance, and that really opens things up for Knoxville.
Jones' Army won't reach Sneedville until the morning of the 29th! Even worse, Roger's Army crosses the border on the 24th, giving Knoxille an extra three or four days to get their act together. Instead of a blitzkrieg, Kingsport winds up with a blitzcrawl. They'll take the crossroads north of Lake Cherokee without a fight, but marching on Morristown, Knoxville's second largest city, puts them at risk of being surrounded by Knoxville's two largest armies.
On the flip side, things could not have gone better for Knoxville:
- Thanks to a signing bonus, the boys in uniform gain a +1 morale boost for the first week of the campaign. With no battles in that time frame, it doesn't make a real difference, but the thought was nice.
- The Sneedville 300 pulled back to Tazewell rather than squander their lives for a meager couple of days of defense. In retrospect, they might have done better to stay, given the Kingsport difficulty in moving their forces. Too late now.
- With the implementation of the Cornerback Blitz, Knoxville takes the offensive in the north. We'll call that little deep strike the Harlan Blitz, and it puts Kingsport in a real bind. The nearest army - Jones - is parked in Sneedville and can't leave lest Knoxville take it right back. The only available force is all the way down in Bull's Gap.
- Plan Weeb Hammer allows the major Knoxville forces to gather in Corryton and White Pine completely unmolested. The Army of the East is in good position to intercept any force south of Lake Cherokee. The Army of the West has a good line to the regions or south north of the Lake.
- The only fly in the ointment is the Army of the Pines, located just north of the Cumberland Gap. If Tazewell falls to Kingsport, they will be out of supply. They can't just sit there and risk being cut off.
- Meanwhile, there was some confusion in Bean Station. Two companies of soldiers stationed there never received orders. When Roger's Army appeared on the horizon the commanders had a falling out, leading to one company marching south to join the Army of the East and the other marching north to Tazewell. The latter connected with the Sneedville 300, resulting in a small force of 450 soldiers uncertain of their next move. It all depends on what happens around the map.
Here's how things stand on the 28th:
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| Note the flagpoles and arrows are color coded. Red for Knoxville, Blue for Kingsport |
We still need to run the numbers and see where the first direct confrontation will occur - and what forces will be there, but the picture is a lot clearer now. Kingsport will take Sneedville, and they have secure supply lines, but Knoxville is anything but out of the fight. They have a strong positional advantage, and a slight numerical advantage, over the invaders.
